Probability Theory (AUS) Horse
Country
Foal Date
Colour
Sire
Dam
Prize Money
Trainer
Owners
About
Probability Theory is a 3yo bay filly from Australia, trained by Nacim Dilmi in Wyong. She is by the stallion Microphone out of the dam Actuarial. She has logged four career wins. On 27th Apr 2026 at Kensington, she earned her biggest victory, claiming the $120000.00 Midway Bm 72 Hcp. She has been a profitable horse for punters; backing her throughout her career would have produced a 134% return on investment.
Race Record
| Event Summary | Runner Stats | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Kensington 27-Apr-26 1300m GOOD 4 R4 MIDWAY BM72 $55,000 (of $120,000) Barrier 2, Winning Time: 01:16.010, SP: 3.40 In-running: 800m 4th, 400m 2nd Sectionals: 600m 00:34.900 1st Probability Theory ( R King 57 ) 2nd Phyxius ( R Bayliss 56.5 ) 0.53L 3rd Penpel ( M Fitzgerald 56.5 , Cd 53.5 ) 1.91L See full results | R King 57kg | 1 (8) |
| Gosford 09-Apr-26 1200m GOOD 4 R6 MID BM68 $21,000 (of $45,000) Barrier 4, Winning Time: 01:09.890, SP: 1.85 In-running: 800m 3rd, 400m 3rd Sectionals: 600m 00:34.220 1st Probability Theory ( R King 57 ) 2nd Jacob's Ladder ( Z T Lloyd 59 ) 0.61L 3rd Hellova Nature ( S Grima 55.5 , Cd 53.5 ) 0.64L See full results | R King 57kg | 1 (7) |
| Beaumont 24-Mar-26 1000m SOFT 5 R2 OPEN-BT, Winning Time: 01:00.090 Sectionals: 600m 00:34.200 1st Probability Theory ( W Stanley ) 2nd Spandex ( A Roper ) 1.23L 3rd Rivellino ( J Severo ) 1.91L | W Stanley | 1 (7) |
| Wyong 05-Mar-26 845m SOFT 6 R6 OPEN-BT, Winning Time: 00:51.400 Sectionals: 600m 00:35.740 1st Sapling ( A Roper ) 2nd Probability Theory ( C Reith ) 0.28L 3rd Overtook ( M Bell ) 4.82L | C Reith 0.28L | 2 (6) |
| Newcastle 15-Nov-25 1600m GOOD 4 R7 G3 SPRING STK $6,100 (of $250,000) Barrier 9, Winning Time: 01:36.000, SP: 6.00 In-running: Settled 5th, 1200m 5th, 800m 5th, 400m 5th Sectionals: 600m 00:34.750 1st Green Spaces ( R King 56.5 ) 2nd Bird Whistle ( B Nock 54.5 ) 3.00L 3rd Long Legs ( T J Schiller 54.5 ) 3.23L 5th Probability Theory ( Z Lloyd 54.5 ) 5.34L See full results | Z Lloyd 54.5kg 5.34L | 5 (11) |
| Hawkesbury 08-Nov-25 1300m GOOD 4 R8 MID BM64 $21,000 (of $45,000) Barrier 3, Winning Time: 01:15.820, SP: 3.80 In-running: Settled 3rd, 800m 3rd, 400m 3rd Sectionals: 600m 00:34.200 1st Probability Theory ( M Stapleford 55 , Cd 53 ) 2nd Yabby Pump ( L Magorrian 60.5 ) 1.36L 3rd Smart Serenade ( G Buckley 59 ) 2.34L See full results | M Stapleford 55kg, Cd 53kg | 1 (9) |
| Hawkesbury 23-Oct-25 1300m GOOD 4 R4 PROV MDN-SW $21,000 (of $45,000) Barrier 3, Winning Time: 01:17.970, SP: 5.00 In-running: Settled 2nd, 800m 2nd, 400m 2nd Sectionals: 600m 00:33.850 1st Probability Theory ( T Berry 55 ) 2nd Into Brooklyn ( A R D Morgan 55 ) 1.14L 3rd Coyote ( C Lever 59 ) 1.46L See full results | T Berry 55kg | 1 (7) |
| Scone 26-Sep-25 1100m GOOD 4 R4 MDN $500 (of $27,000) Barrier 3, Winning Time: 01:03.810, SP: 26.00 In-running: Settled 11th, 800m 11th, 400m 11th Sectionals: 600m 00:35.160 1st Land Bank ( A Morgan 57.5 ) 2nd Chains Of Love ( A Adkins 55 ) 0.65L 3rd Hot Chocks ( R Jones 56.5 ) 2.17L 9th Probability Theory ( A Roper 55 ) 5.24L See full results | A Roper 55kg 5.24L | 9 (13) |
| Wyong 08-Sep-25 845m GOOD 4 R16 3YF MDN-BT, Winning Time: 00:51.700 Sectionals: 600m 00:36.040 1st Probability Theory ( A Morgan ) 2nd Brown Sugar ( J Parr ) 0.31L 3rd Populism ( J Ford ) 2.64L | A Morgan | 1 (6) |
| Gosford 18-Aug-25 800m HEAVY 8 R13 3YF MDN-BT, Winning Time: 00:49.530 Sectionals: 600m 00:36.260 1st Scarlet Monarch ( A Roper ) 2nd Probability Theory ( R Hutchings ) 0.02L 3rd Bifurcation ( A Morgan ) 0.16L | R Hutchings 0.02L | 2 (6) |
| Beaumont Newcastle 16-Apr-25 780m HEAVY 8 R12 2Y-BT, Winning Time: 00:45.710 Sectionals: 600m 00:33.700 1st Vittozzi ( J V Overmeire ) 2nd Herman Said ( A Gibbons ) 1.92L 3rd Step Right In ( A Bullock ) 3.28L 8th Probability Theory ( A Roper ) 13.27L | A Roper 13.27L | 8 (8) |