Probability (USA) Horse
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About
Probability is a 4yo ch from United States trained by William Walden. It is by the stallion Improbable out of the dam Perazzi. Probability has not yet broken its maiden, failing to win in four starts. In its latest start at Aqueduct on 10 Jan 2026, ridden by Manuel Franco, Probability finished second behind winner Sequential.
Race Record
| Event Summary | Runner Stats | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Aqueduct 10-Jan-26 1609m FIRM R5 Md $15,000 (of $75,000) Barrier 5, Winning Time: 01:38.210, SP: 1.14 1st Sequential ( J Lezcano 122 ) 2nd Probability ( M Franco 122 ) 0.25L 3rd Ice Shot ( A Adorno 122 ) 4.75L See full results | M Franco 55.3kg 0.25L | 2 (7) |
| Aqueduct 06-Dec-25 1610m FIRM R8 Md $16,000 (of $80,000) Barrier 5, Winning Time: 01:37.140, SP: 2.75 settled off the pace, raced in the three path on the turn, was roused late on that bend, made light contact with a rival while making a bid in upper stretch, battled outside of the winner in the final furlong and just missed while well clear for the place. 1st Twohonestmischief ( E Cancel 121 ) 2nd Probability ( M Franco 121 ) 0.10L 3rd Kaz Oil Changer ( S Gonzalez 121 ) 7.50L See full results | M Franco 54.9kg 0.10L | 2 (8) |
| Belmont At The Big A 22-Sep-24 1210m FIRM R7 Md $7,501 (of $75,001) Barrier 5, Winning Time: 01:11.160 broke out at the start under husting bumping HAVE A CIGAR, chased three wide coming under coaxing at the three-eighths, swung three to four wide into upper stretch and weakened. 1st Man In Finance ( L R Jr 119 ) 2nd Kenny Be ( R Maragh 119 ) 7.75L 3rd Probability ( K Carmouche 119 ) 10.50L See full results | K Carmouche 54kg 10.50L | 3 (11) |
| Saratoga 04-Aug-24 1210m FIRM R2 Md $3,600 (of $90,000) Barrier 3, Winning Time: 01:11.289 chased the pace down the backstretch, went around the turn in the three path and tired. 1st Smilensaycheese ( L Saez 119 ) 2nd The Toner ( J R Leparoux 119 ) 0.00L 3rd Corvus ( R Vazquez 119 ) 0.00L 5th Probability ( I O Jr 119 ) 13.55L See full results | I O Jr 54kg 13.55L | 5 (10) |