Probability (USA) Horse
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About
Probability is a 4yo chestnut from the United States trained by Amelia J. Green. It is by the stallion Improbable out of the mare Perazzi. Probability has recorded one win in its career. On 23rd Mar 2026 at Aqueduct, Probability secured its most notable victory, earning $75,000.00.
Race Record
| Event Summary | Runner Stats | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Aqueduct 23-Mar-26 1609m R2 Md $47,250 (of $75,000) Barrier 3, Winning Time: 01:38.200, SP: 1.62 coaxed from the gate, raced forwardly placed advancing to take narrow command six furlongs out, showed the way in hand along the inside coming under coaxing just outside the quarter pole, spun just off the inside into upper stretch, edged clear under a drive to prevail. 1st Probability ( J Rodriguez 126 ) 2nd Mo Curls ( R Silvera 120 ) 3.00L 3rd Power Speed ( K Carmouche 120 ) 7.50L See full results | J Rodriguez 57.2kg | 1 (6) |
| Aqueduct 28-Feb-26 1308m SOFT R2 Md $15,000 (of $75,000) Barrier 6, Winning Time: 01:20.200, SP: 2.25 1st Kaz Oil Changer ( J Rodriguez 122 ) 2nd Probability ( M Franco 122 ) 1.00L 3rd Alzero ( C Elliott 122 ) 4.75L See full results | M Franco 55.3kg 1.00L | 2 (6) |
| Aqueduct 10-Jan-26 1609m FIRM R5 Md $15,000 (of $75,000) Barrier 5, Winning Time: 01:38.210, SP: 1.14 1st Sequential ( J Lezcano 122 ) 2nd Probability ( M Franco 122 ) 0.25L 3rd Ice Shot ( A Adorno 122 ) 4.50L See full results | M Franco 55.3kg 0.25L | 2 (7) |
| Aqueduct 06-Dec-25 1610m FIRM R8 Md $16,000 (of $80,000) Barrier 5, Winning Time: 01:37.140, SP: 2.75 settled off the pace, raced in the three path on the turn, was roused late on that bend, made light contact with a rival while making a bid in upper stretch, battled outside of the winner in the final furlong and just missed while well clear for the place. 1st Twohonestmischief ( E Cancel 121 ) 2nd Probability ( M Franco 121 ) 0.10L 3rd Kaz Oil Changer ( S Gonzalez 121 ) 7.50L See full results | M Franco 54.9kg 0.10L | 2 (8) |
| Belmont At The Big A 22-Sep-24 1210m FIRM R7 Md $7,501 (of $75,001) Barrier 5, Winning Time: 01:11.160 broke out at the start under husting bumping HAVE A CIGAR, chased three wide coming under coaxing at the three-eighths, swung three to four wide into upper stretch and weakened. 1st Man In Finance ( L R Jr 119 ) 2nd Kenny Be ( R Maragh 119 ) 7.75L 3rd Probability ( K Carmouche 119 ) 10.50L See full results | K Carmouche 54kg 10.50L | 3 (11) |
| Saratoga 04-Aug-24 1210m FIRM R2 Md $3,600 (of $90,000) Barrier 3, Winning Time: 01:11.289 chased the pace down the backstretch, went around the turn in the three path and tired. 1st Smilensaycheese ( L Saez 119 ) 2nd The Toner ( J R Leparoux 119 ) 0.00L 3rd Corvus ( R Vazquez 119 ) 0.00L 5th Probability ( I O Jr 119 ) 13.55L See full results | I O Jr 54kg 13.55L | 5 (10) |