Probability (USA) Horse
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About
Probability is a four-year-old chestnut gelding bred in the United States, by Improbable out of Perazzi. He races under the guidance of Amelia Green and is owned by The Elkstone Group Llc (stuart Grant). Over a career of twelve starts, he has captured three victories, placed second three times and once finished third, accumulating earnings of $208,634. His most recent outing took place at Belmont Park on 16 October 2026, where he came home 5th of 7 runners. The latest win was recorded at Finger Lakes on 18 August 2026.
Raced At
Belmont Park • Finger Lakes • Saratoga • Aqueduct • Belmont At The Big A • Will Rogers DownsRace Record
| Event Summary | Runner Stats | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Belmont Park 16-Oct-26 1609m FIRM R7 Race 7 (of $150,927) Barrier 6, Winning Time: 01:35.670, SP: 13.00 coaxed from the gate, chased six to seven paths off the rail down the backstretch before tucking four wide through the turn, came under a long drive with half a mile to run, went five to six wide into upper stretch and passed tired rivals. 1st Twohonestmischief ( F Prat 124 ) 2nd Calling Card ( M Franco 126 ) 3.75L 3rd Solo Jim ( A Fresu 126 ) 6.75L 5th Probability ( S Marin 126 ) 11.75L See full results | S Marin 57.2kg 11.75L | 5 (7) |
| Finger Lakes 17-Sep-26 1609m FIRM R6 Race 6 $7,664 (of $38,318) Barrier 3, Winning Time: 01:38.760, SP: 1.62 1st Beach Invasion ( K Coa 124 ) 2nd Probability ( C Elliott 124 ) 0.25L 3rd Go Yoshida ( L Perez 121 ) 3.75L See full results | C Elliott 56.2kg 0.25L | 2 (6) |
| Finger Lakes 18-Aug-26 1673m FIRM R3 Race 3 $23,900 (of $37,934) Barrier 3, Winning Time: 01:45.030, SP: 1.15 1st Probability ( C Elliott 124 ) 2nd Gray Haired Gus ( K Navarro 124 ) 2.00L 3rd Take The Gold ( J Cruz 122 ) 1.75L See full results | C Elliott 56.2kg | 1 (5) |
| Finger Lakes 08-Jul-26 1710m R7 Race 7 $24,028 (of $38,140) Barrier 7, Winning Time: 01:44.490, SP: 3.00 1st Probability ( C Elliott 124 ) 2nd Valentinian ( R Gutierrez 124 ) 2.00L 3rd Love Coin ( K Coa 120 ) 1.50L See full results | C Elliott 56.2kg | 1 (5) |
| Saratoga 04-Jun-26 1811m FIRM R7 Race 7 $628 (of $146,624) Barrier 1, Winning Time: 01:46.840, SP: 34.00 1st A Little At First ( J Castellano 120 ) 2nd Willpowered ( F Prat 126 ) 1.25L 3rd Honoree ( I O Jr 120 ) 0.20L 11th Probability ( J Rodriguez 126 ) 13.85L See full results | J Rodriguez 57.2kg 13.85L | 11 (12) |
| Aqueduct 17-Apr-26 1811m Flat, SP: 2/1 | Jaime Rodriguez 57.2kg | 8 (8) |
| Aqueduct 22-Mar-26 1609m FAST Flat, SP: 8/13 | Jaime Rodriguez 57.2kg | 1 (5) |
| Aqueduct 27-Feb-26 1308m SLOPPY Flat, SP: 5/4 | Manuel Franco 55.3kg | 2 (5) |
| Aqueduct 09-Jan-26 1609m Flat, SP: 1/7 | Manuel Franco 55.3kg | 2 (5) |
| Belmont At The Big A 21-Sep-24 1207m FAST Flat, SP: 9/4 | Kendrick Carmouche 54kg | 3 (11) |
| Saratoga 03-Aug-24 1207m SLOPPY Flat, SP: 2/1 | Irad Ortiz Jr 54kg | 5 (10) |
| Will Rogers Downs 24-Mar-15 1207m Flat, SP: 9/2 Pace inside,yielded | Adrian Ramos 55.3kg 1.5 | 4 (11) |